V-Lab
Shopping Patio Higienopolis GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 1st, 2026
1 Day
32.00%
decreased by 2.45%
1 Week
32.25%
decreased by 2.20%
1 Month
33.18%
decreased by 1.27%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 10:21 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 20, 2005 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.991, volatility shocks have a half-life of 77 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.991, shock half-life ~77 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0688 | 3.34*** |
| αARCH | 0.1564 | 2.96*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8479 | 36.86*** |
| γleverage | -0.0266 | -0.32 |
0.991
Persistence77d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0688 | 3.34*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1564 | 2.96*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8479 | 36.86*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0266 | -0.32 |
Persistence:
0.991
Half-life:
77 days
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