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Shopping Patio Higienopolis Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 1st, 2026

1 Day

23.12%

decreased by 3.04%

1 Week

22.76%

decreased by 3.40%

1 Month

21.87%

decreased by 4.29%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 10:21 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

09/30/2024

to

09/30/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Shopping Patio Higienopolis S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jun 20, 2005 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 8 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.6434
2.94***
αARCH0.1889
6.77***
βGARCH0.7298
20.35***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=10
γ1-0.0879
-0.10
γ20.9378
0.79
γ3-1.7689
-1.71*
γ42.3380
2.06**
γ5-3.2998
-3.58***
γ64.1347
4.83***
γ7-4.2225
-4.32***
γ83.5140
2.74***
γ9-3.0781
-2.00**
γ102.2474
1.92*

0.919

Persistence

8d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.6434
2.94***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1889
6.77***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7298
20.35***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=10
γ1-0.0879
-0.10
γ20.9378
0.79
γ3-1.7689
-1.71*
γ42.3380
2.06**
γ5-3.2998
-3.58***
γ64.1347
4.83***
γ7-4.2225
-4.32***
γ83.5140
2.74***
γ9-3.0781
-2.00**
γ102.2474
1.92*

Persistence:

0.919

Half-life:

8 days