V-Lab
Sunlight Real Estate Investment Trust Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 2nd, 2026
1 Day
17.93%
decreased by 0.48%
1 Week
18.94%
increased by 0.53%
1 Month
21.44%
increased by 3.03%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 08:08 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 21, 2006 to Sep 30, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 11 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.6754 | 3.49*** |
| αARCH | 0.1125 | 6.06*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8242 | 32.65*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=6
| γ1 | -0.2553 | -2.28** |
| γ2 | 0.3679 | 2.27** |
| γ3 | -0.1467 | -1.63 |
| γ4 | 0.0969 | 1.43 |
| γ5 | -0.1303 | -2.21** |
| γ6 | 0.0834 | 1.84* |
0.937
Persistence11d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.6754 | 3.49*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1125 | 6.06*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8242 | 32.65*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=6
| γ1 | -0.2553 | -2.28** |
| γ2 | 0.3679 | 2.27** |
| γ3 | -0.1467 | -1.63 |
| γ4 | 0.0969 | 1.43 |
| γ5 | -0.1303 | -2.21** |
| γ6 | 0.0834 | 1.84* |
Persistence:
0.937
Half-life:
11 days
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