V-Lab
Sunlight Real Estate Investment Trust MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 2nd, 2026
1 Day
16.74%
decreased by 0.63%
1 Week
17.62%
increased by 0.25%
1 Month
19.44%
increased by 2.07%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 08:09 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 21, 2006 to Sep 30, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 78% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 78% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 21 | |
| αARCH | 0.0914 | 3.93*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7745 | 22.64*** |
| γleverage | 0.0714 | 2.23** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0035 | 1.06 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0109 | 1.98** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.9874 | 158.31*** |
0.902
Persistence7d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 21 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0914 | 3.93*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7745 | 22.64*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0714 | 2.23** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0035 | 1.06 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0109 | 1.98** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9874 | 158.31*** |
Persistence:
0.902
Half-life:
7 days
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