V-Lab
SBA Communications Corp MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 2nd, 2026
1 Day
30.72%
1 Week
30.85%
1 Month
31.35%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 10:56 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 16, 1999 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 380 trading days (~1.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 256% more than positive returns
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 101 | |
| αARCH | 0.0226 | 3.59*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9466 | 160.98*** |
| γleverage | 0.0579 | 5.74*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 6.7611 | 0.18 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.4541 | 0.15 |
0.998
Persistence380d
Half-lifeMF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 101 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0226 | 3.59*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9466 | 160.98*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0579 | 5.74*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 6.7611 | 0.18 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.4541 | 0.15 |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
380 days
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