V-Lab
Real Investor Fundo De Investimento Imobiliario MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 1st, 2026
1 Day
9.35%
increased by 1.45%
1 Week
9.56%
increased by 1.66%
1 Month
9.95%
increased by 2.05%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 10:33 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 14, 2023 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 4 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 4 days.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 4-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 21 | |
| αARCH | 0.0726 | 1.79* |
| βGARCH | 0.7221 | 6.53*** |
| γleverage | 0.0784 | 1.32 |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.3003 | 0.61 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.1439 | 0.49 |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.1026 | 0.07 |
0.834
Persistence4d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 21 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0726 | 1.79* |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7221 | 6.53*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0784 | 1.32 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.3003 | 0.61 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.1439 | 0.49 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.1026 | 0.07 |
Persistence:
0.834
Half-life:
4 days
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