V-Lab
FII Grand Plaza Shopping MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 1st, 2026
1 Day
19.83%
decreased by 0.77%
1 Week
23.62%
increased by 3.02%
1 Month
35.87%
increased by 15.27%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 10:24 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 19, 2007 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 5 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 5 days.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 5-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 61 | |
| αARCH | 0.2576 | 4.24*** |
| βGARCH | 0.5535 | 7.54*** |
| γleverage | 0.1286 | 1.25 |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.6789 | 0.95 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.4148 | 1.50 |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.4980 | 1.51 |
0.875
Persistence5d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 61 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2576 | 4.24*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5535 | 7.54*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1286 | 1.25 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.6789 | 0.95 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.4148 | 1.50 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.4980 | 1.51 |
Persistence:
0.875
Half-life:
5 days
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