V-Lab
Kimco Realty Corp MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 2nd, 2026
1 Day
15.51%
decreased by 0.50%
1 Week
15.94%
decreased by 0.07%
1 Month
17.51%
increased by 1.50%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 11:12 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 22, 1991 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 105% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 105% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 126 | |
| αARCH | 0.0568 | 2.14** |
| βGARCH | 0.8959 | 56.90*** |
| γleverage | 0.0598 | 2.12** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0382 | 0.70 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0461 | 1.19 |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.9421 | 18.75*** |
0.983
Persistence39d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 126 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0568 | 2.14** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8959 | 56.90*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0598 | 2.12** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0382 | 0.70 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0461 | 1.19 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9421 | 18.75*** |
Persistence:
0.983
Half-life:
39 days
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