V-Lab
Fundo De Investimento Imobiliario Caixa Agencias MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 30th, 2026
1 Day
14.95%
1 Week
14.86%
1 Month
15.30%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 10:32 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 7, 2022 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 56 | |
| αARCH | 0.2604 | 5.57*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7043 | 10.80*** |
| γleverage | -0.2163 | -3.34*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.3097 | 0.54 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.3218 | 0.63 |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.2987 | 0.25 |
0.857
Persistence4d
Half-lifeMF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 56 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2604 | 5.57*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7043 | 10.80*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.2163 | -3.34*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.3097 | 0.54 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.3218 | 0.63 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.2987 | 0.25 |
Persistence:
0.857
Half-life:
4 days
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