V-Lab
Fundo De Investimento Imobiliario Caixa Agencias AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 30th, 2026
1 Day
14.37%
decreased by 2.53%
1 Week
14.35%
decreased by 2.55%
1 Month
14.32%
decreased by 2.58%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 10:32 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 7, 2022 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = -0.59) so that positive returns raise next-day volatility more than negative returns of the same size. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and rare among risky assets.
σ
AGARCH Model
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Asymmetry: positive returns raise volatility more
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.1222 | 2.78*** |
| αARCH | 0.1652 | 4.47*** |
| βGARCH | 0.6140 | 12.99*** |
| γleverage | -0.5886 | -2.30** |
0.779
Persistence3d
Half-lifeσ
AGARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.1222 | 2.78*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1652 | 4.47*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6140 | 12.99*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.5886 | -2.30** |
Persistence:
0.779
Half-life:
3 days
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