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Fundo De Investimento Imobiliario Caixa Agencias AGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 30th, 2026

1 Day

14.37%

decreased by 2.53%

1 Week

14.35%

decreased by 2.55%

1 Month

14.32%

decreased by 2.58%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 10:32 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

09/29/2024

to

09/29/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

All

graph of Fundo De Investimento Imobiliario Caixa Agencias AGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 7, 2022 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = -0.59) so that positive returns raise next-day volatility more than negative returns of the same size. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and rare among risky assets.

σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Asymmetry: positive returns raise volatility more
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.1222
2.78***
αARCH0.1652
4.47***
βGARCH0.6140
12.99***
γleverage-0.5886
-2.30**

0.779

Persistence

3d

Half-life
σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.1222
2.78***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1652
4.47***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.6140
12.99***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.5886
-2.30**

Persistence:

0.779

Half-life:

3 days