V-Lab
Sunstone Hotel Investors Inc AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 2nd, 2026
1 Day
15.20%
decreased by 0.44%
1 Week
15.80%
increased by 0.16%
1 Month
17.90%
increased by 2.26%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 11:15 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 21, 2004 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.991, volatility shocks have a half-life of 75 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Asymmetry: negative returns raise volatility more
σ
AGARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.991, shock half-life ~75 daysAsymmetry: negative returns raise volatility more
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0166 | 1.17 |
| αARCH | 0.0675 | 7.76*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9233 | 112.29*** |
| γleverage | 0.6601 | 4.50*** |
0.991
Persistence75d
Half-lifeσ
AGARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0166 | 1.17 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0675 | 7.76*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9233 | 112.29*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.6601 | 4.50*** |
Persistence:
0.991
Half-life:
75 days
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