V-Lab
Sunstone Hotel Investors Inc GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 2nd, 2026
1 Day
17.15%
decreased by 0.16%
1 Week
17.52%
increased by 0.21%
1 Month
18.85%
increased by 1.54%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 11:15 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 21, 2004 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 89 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 314% more than positive returns
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.992, shock half-life ~89 daysLeverage: Negative returns increase volatility 314% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0347 | 2.72*** |
| αARCH | 0.0212 | 2.95*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9376 | 127.62*** |
| γleverage | 0.0667 | 3.68*** |
0.992
Persistence89d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0347 | 2.72*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0212 | 2.95*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9376 | 127.62*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0667 | 3.68*** |
Persistence:
0.992
Half-life:
89 days
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