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Icbc Credit Suisse- Mengneng GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 8th, 2026

1 Day

31.47%

increased by 1.41%

1 Week

33.31%

increased by 3.25%

1 Month

39.83%

increased by 9.77%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 07:24 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

09/30/2024

to

09/30/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

All

graph of Icbc Credit Suisse- Mengneng GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 13, 2024 to Sep 30, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 1.000, shock half-life ~1386294 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.2363
2.18**
αARCH0.6826
1.53
βGARCH0.5294
3.89***
γleverage-0.4240
-0.83

1.000

Persistence

1386294d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.2363
2.18**
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.6826
1.53
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.5294
3.89***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.4240
-0.83

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

1386294 days