V-Lab
Icbc Credit Suisse- Mengneng GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 8th, 2026
1 Day
31.47%
1 Week
33.31%
1 Month
39.83%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 07:24 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 13, 2024 to Sep 30, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.2363 | 2.18** |
| αARCH | 0.6826 | 1.53 |
| βGARCH | 0.5294 | 3.89*** |
| γleverage | -0.4240 | -0.83 |
1.000
Persistence1386294d
Half-lifeGJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.2363 | 2.18** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.6826 | 1.53 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5294 | 3.89*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.4240 | -0.83 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
1386294 days
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