V-Lab
Icbc Credit Suisse- Mengneng Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 8th, 2026
1 Day
29.68%
increased by 0.14%
1 Week
30.37%
increased by 0.83%
1 Month
30.76%
increased by 1.22%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 07:24 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 13, 2024 to Sep 30, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 1 trading day.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.4707 | 3.59*** |
| αARCH | 0.1279 | 2.04** |
| βGARCH | 0.4403 | 1.48 |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | 118.2451 | 4.74*** |
| γ2 | -168.1215 | -3.79*** |
| γ3 | 87.3362 | 1.94* |
| γ4 | -102.1161 | -1.72* |
| γ5 | 127.5909 | 2.00** |
| γ6 | -109.6578 | -2.15** |
| γ7 | 98.1501 | 2.21** |
| γ8 | -79.0733 | -1.71* |
| γ9 | 27.1526 | 0.77 |
0.568
Persistence1d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.4707 | 3.59*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1279 | 2.04** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.4403 | 1.48 |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | 118.2451 | 4.74*** |
| γ2 | -168.1215 | -3.79*** |
| γ3 | 87.3362 | 1.94* |
| γ4 | -102.1161 | -1.72* |
| γ5 | 127.5909 | 2.00** |
| γ6 | -109.6578 | -2.15** |
| γ7 | 98.1501 | 2.21** |
| γ8 | -79.0733 | -1.71* |
| γ9 | 27.1526 | 0.77 |
Persistence:
0.568
Half-life:
1 days
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