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Charter Hall Group Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 1st, 2026

1 Day

36.38%

increased by 8.38%

1 Week

36.25%

increased by 8.25%

1 Month

35.80%

increased by 7.80%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 06:05 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

09/30/2024

to

09/30/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Charter Hall Group S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jun 13, 2005 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 29 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.4602
4.35***
αARCH0.0590
5.97***
βGARCH0.9175
68.93***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=5
γ1-0.1887
-3.93***
γ20.2048
2.99***
γ30.0491
1.17
γ4-0.1064
-2.66***
γ50.0462
1.65*

0.977

Persistence

29d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.4602
4.35***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0590
5.97***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9175
68.93***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=5
γ1-0.1887
-3.93***
γ20.2048
2.99***
γ30.0491
1.17
γ4-0.1064
-2.66***
γ50.0462
1.65*

Persistence:

0.977

Half-life:

29 days