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Charter Hall Group GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 1st, 2026

1 Day

31.44%

increased by 4.09%

1 Week

31.44%

increased by 4.09%

1 Month

31.47%

increased by 4.12%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 06:05 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

09/30/2024

to

09/30/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Charter Hall Group GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jun 13, 2005 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.993, volatility shocks have a half-life of 102 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.20 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.993, shock half-life ~102 daysv = 5.20 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst4.0399
1.34
αARCH0.0507
9.33***
βGARCH0.9932
192.82***
νDF5.2027
2.69***

0.993

Persistence

102d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

4.0399
1.34
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0507
9.33***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9932
192.82***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

5.2027
2.69***

Persistence:

0.993

Half-life:

102 days