V-Lab
Charter Hall Group GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 1st, 2026
1 Day
31.44%
1 Week
31.44%
1 Month
31.47%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 06:05 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 13, 2005 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.993, volatility shocks have a half-life of 102 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.20 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 4.0399 | 1.34 |
| αARCH | 0.0507 | 9.33*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9932 | 192.82*** |
| νDF | 5.2027 | 2.69*** |
0.993
Persistence102d
Half-lifeGAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 4.0399 | 1.34 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0507 | 9.33*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9932 | 192.82*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 5.2027 | 2.69*** |
Persistence:
0.993
Half-life:
102 days
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