V-Lab
RB Capital Desenvolvimento Residencial IV FII GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 1st, 2026
1 Day
25.04%
1 Week
25.32%
1 Month
26.40%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 10:31 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 5, 2020 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, volatility shocks have a half-life of 693 trading days (~2.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.01 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 30.4521 | 1.80* |
| αARCH | 0.0680 | 10.98*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9990 | 1,734.38*** |
| νDF | 3.0141 | 10.00*** |
0.999
Persistence693d
Half-lifeGAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 30.4521 | 1.80* |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0680 | 10.98*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9990 | 1,734.38*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 3.0141 | 10.00*** |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
693 days
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