V-Lab
HGI Creditos Imobiliarios FII GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 1st, 2026
1 Day
741.83%
decreased by 102.44%
1 Week
737.93%
decreased by 106.34%
1 Month
722.73%
decreased by 121.54%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 10:32 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 13, 2021 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
The estimated Student-t degrees of freedom v = 2.00 sit at the infinite-variance boundary (v → 2): the model is attributing extreme moves to heavy tails rather than to volatility, so the volatility scale is unreliable here. See the boundary-parameters flag.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Unreliable tails: v = 2.00 sits at the infinite-variance boundary
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 239.0049 | 2.44** |
| αARCH | 0.0891 | 17.83*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9941 | 384.55*** |
| νDF | 2.0020 |
0.994
Persistence117d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 239.0049 | 2.44** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0891 | 17.83*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9941 | 384.55*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 2.0020 |
Persistence:
0.994
Half-life:
117 days
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