V-Lab
Ingenia Communities Group GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 1st, 2026
1 Day
49.28%
1 Week
49.21%
1 Month
48.94%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 06:06 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 29, 2004 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 136 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.20 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 6.8915 | 1.95* |
| αARCH | 0.0755 | 18.13*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9949 | 428.11*** |
| νDF | 4.1998 | 9.04*** |
0.995
Persistence136d
Half-lifeGAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 6.8915 | 1.95* |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0755 | 18.13*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9949 | 428.11*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 4.1998 | 9.04*** |
Persistence:
0.995
Half-life:
136 days
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