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Ingenia Communities Group GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 1st, 2026

1 Day

49.28%

increased by 1.19%

1 Week

49.21%

increased by 1.12%

1 Month

48.94%

increased by 0.85%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 06:06 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

09/30/2024

to

09/30/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Ingenia Communities Group GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 29, 2004 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 136 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.20 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.995, shock half-life ~136 daysv = 4.20 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst6.8915
1.95*
αARCH0.0755
18.13***
βGARCH0.9949
428.11***
νDF4.1998
9.04***

0.995

Persistence

136d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

6.8915
1.95*
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0755
18.13***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9949
428.11***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

4.1998
9.04***

Persistence:

0.995

Half-life:

136 days