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RioCan Real Estate Investment Trust GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 2nd, 2026

1 Day

14.28%

decreased by 0.56%

1 Week

14.44%

decreased by 0.40%

1 Month

15.07%

increased by 0.23%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 2, 2026 at 09:06 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/01/2024

to

10/01/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of RioCan Real Estate Investment Trust GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 5, 1994 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 109 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.97 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.994, shock half-life ~109 daysv = 5.97 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst2.3312
1.18
αARCH0.0730
11.41***
βGARCH0.9937
184.15***
νDF5.9700
2.69***

0.994

Persistence

109d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

2.3312
1.18
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0730
11.41***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9937
184.15***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

5.9700
2.69***

Persistence:

0.994

Half-life:

109 days