V-Lab
RioCan Real Estate Investment Trust GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 2nd, 2026
1 Day
14.28%
decreased by 0.56%
1 Week
14.44%
decreased by 0.40%
1 Month
15.07%
increased by 0.23%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 2, 2026 at 09:06 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 5, 1994 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 109 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.97 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.994, shock half-life ~109 daysv = 5.97 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 2.3312 | 1.18 |
| αARCH | 0.0730 | 11.41*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9937 | 184.15*** |
| νDF | 5.9700 | 2.69*** |
0.994
Persistence109d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.3312 | 1.18 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0730 | 11.41*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9937 | 184.15*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 5.9700 | 2.69*** |
Persistence:
0.994
Half-life:
109 days
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