V-Lab
Granite Real Estate Investment Trust GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 2nd, 2026
1 Day
22.37%
increased by 0.32%
1 Week
22.52%
increased by 0.47%
1 Month
22.98%
increased by 0.93%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 2, 2026 at 09:04 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 20, 2003 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 20 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 20 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.54 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 20-day half-lifev = 4.54 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 2.3806 | 1.63 |
| αARCH | 0.1103 | 5.63*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9656 | 50.46*** |
| νDF | 4.5374 | 2.22** |
0.966
Persistence20d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.3806 | 1.63 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1103 | 5.63*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9656 | 50.46*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 4.5374 | 2.22** |
Persistence:
0.966
Half-life:
20 days
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