V-Lab
BTG Pactual Real Estate Hedge Fund FII - Responsabilidade Limitada GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 1st, 2026
1 Day
18.19%
increased by 2.70%
1 Week
18.26%
increased by 2.77%
1 Month
18.49%
increased by 3.00%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 10:33 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 17, 2024 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 27 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 27 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.66 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 27-day half-lifev = 5.66 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.5163 | 0.67 |
| αARCH | 0.1275 | 2.64*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9745 | 25.64*** |
| νDF | 5.6625 | 0.73 |
0.975
Persistence27d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.5163 | 0.67 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1275 | 2.64*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9745 | 25.64*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 5.6625 | 0.73 |
Persistence:
0.975
Half-life:
27 days
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