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BTG Pactual Real Estate Hedge Fund FII - Responsabilidade Limitada MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 1st, 2026

1 Day

20.24%

increased by 6.99%

1 Week

20.59%

increased by 7.34%

1 Month

22.06%

increased by 8.81%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 10:33 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

09/30/2024

to

09/30/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

All

graph of BTG Pactual Real Estate Hedge Fund FII - Responsabilidade Limitada MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 17, 2024 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 175% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

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Inverse leverage: Positive returns increase volatility 175% more than negative returns
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow31
αARCH0.4001
5.31***
βGARCH0.6791
10.04***
γleverage-0.2548
-3.87***
λ₁tau intercept0.8239
0.81
λ₂forecast adj.0.4650
0.96
λ₃tau persistence0.0000
0.00

0.952

Persistence

14d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

31
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.4001
5.31***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.6791
10.04***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.2548
-3.87***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.8239
0.81
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.4650
0.96
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.0000
0.00

Persistence:

0.952

Half-life:

14 days