V-Lab
BTG Pactual Real Estate Hedge Fund FII - Responsabilidade Limitada MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 1st, 2026
1 Day
20.24%
1 Week
20.59%
1 Month
22.06%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 10:33 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 17, 2024 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 175% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 31 | |
| αARCH | 0.4001 | 5.31*** |
| βGARCH | 0.6791 | 10.04*** |
| γleverage | -0.2548 | -3.87*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.8239 | 0.81 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.4650 | 0.96 |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
0.952
Persistence14d
Half-lifeMF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 31 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.4001 | 5.31*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6791 | 10.04*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.2548 | -3.87*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.8239 | 0.81 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.4650 | 0.96 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
0.952
Half-life:
14 days
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