V-Lab
BTG Pactual Real Estate Hedge Fund FII - Responsabilidade Limitada Asy. MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 1st, 2026
1 Day
13.48%
increased by 4.54%
1 Week
12.95%
increased by 4.01%
1 Month
11.40%
increased by 2.46%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 10:33 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 17, 2024 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 10 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 10 days.
μ
AMEM Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 10-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0167 | 2.72*** |
| αARCH | 0.3364 | 3.49*** |
| βGARCH | 0.6538 | 10.33*** |
| γleverage | -0.1094 | -0.87 |
0.936
Persistence10d
Half-lifeμ
AMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0167 | 2.72*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.3364 | 3.49*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6538 | 10.33*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1094 | -0.87 |
Persistence:
0.936
Half-life:
10 days
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