V-Lab
BTG Pactual Real Estate Hedge Fund FII - Responsabilidade Limitada Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 1st, 2026
1 Day
16.20%
increased by 1.02%
1 Week
15.91%
increased by 0.73%
1 Month
15.04%
decreased by 0.14%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 10:33 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 17, 2024 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 13 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.2534 | 4.38*** |
| αARCH | 0.0811 | 2.52** |
| βGARCH | 0.8653 | 14.88*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.2319 | 1.21 |
0.946
Persistence13d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2534 | 4.38*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0811 | 2.52** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8653 | 14.88*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.2319 | 1.21 |
Persistence:
0.946
Half-life:
13 days
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