V-Lab
Plural Logistica Fii Classe Un Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
17.42%
decreased by 0.34%
1 Week
17.75%
decreased by 0.01%
1 Month
18.78%
increased by 1.02%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 07:13 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 17, 2021 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 20 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.0333 | 6.22*** |
| αARCH | 0.0557 | 3.41*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9109 | 28.99*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0023 | 0.12 |
0.967
Persistence20d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0333 | 6.22*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0557 | 3.41*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9109 | 28.99*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0023 | 0.12 |
Persistence:
0.967
Half-life:
20 days
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