V-Lab
Fundo De Investimento Imobiliario Caixa Agencias Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 30th, 2026
1 Day
15.65%
decreased by 1.34%
1 Week
15.93%
decreased by 1.06%
1 Month
16.08%
decreased by 0.91%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 10:32 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 7, 2022 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 1 trading day.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.7521 | 4.24*** |
| αARCH | 0.1943 | 3.31*** |
| βGARCH | 0.3438 | 2.04** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | 2.0257 | 0.58 |
| γ2 | 2.1323 | 0.35 |
| γ3 | -11.1162 | -1.84* |
| γ4 | 12.5746 | 2.21** |
| γ5 | -5.6724 | -1.33 |
| γ6 | -3.3789 | -0.98 |
| γ7 | 6.4883 | 2.28** |
| γ8 | -4.1956 | -2.05** |
0.538
Persistence1d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.7521 | 4.24*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1943 | 3.31*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.3438 | 2.04** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | 2.0257 | 0.58 |
| γ2 | 2.1323 | 0.35 |
| γ3 | -11.1162 | -1.84* |
| γ4 | 12.5746 | 2.21** |
| γ5 | -5.6724 | -1.33 |
| γ6 | -3.3789 | -0.98 |
| γ7 | 6.4883 | 2.28** |
| γ8 | -4.1956 | -2.05** |
Persistence:
0.538
Half-life:
1 days
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