V-Lab
Fundo De Investimento Imobiliario Caixa Agencias Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 30th, 2026
1 Day
17.72%
1 Week
19.45%
1 Month
21.73%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 10:32 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 7, 2022 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 3 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 3 days. The volatility power δ = 1.46 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APMEM Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.3254 | 2.02** |
| αARCH | 0.2665 | 4.37*** |
| βGARCH | 0.5818 | 5.48*** |
| γleverage | -0.1160 | -0.82 |
| δpower | 1.4551 | 3.20*** |
0.810
Persistence3d
Half-lifeAPMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.3254 | 2.02** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2665 | 4.37*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5818 | 5.48*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1160 | -0.82 |
δ power Transformation power | 1.4551 | 3.20*** |
Persistence:
0.810
Half-life:
3 days
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