V-Lab
SJ Au Logistica FII Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 1st, 2026
1 Day
113.84%
1 Week
119.22%
1 Month
134.74%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 10:29 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 25, 2021 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 14 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 14 days. The volatility power δ = 1.28 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APMEM Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.0000 | 0.94 |
| αARCH | 0.1653 | 3.06*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8142 | 15.65*** |
| γleverage | 0.1797 | 0.73 |
| δpower | 1.2781 | 2.15** |
0.951
Persistence14d
Half-lifeAPMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0000 | 0.94 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1653 | 3.06*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8142 | 15.65*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1797 | 0.73 |
δ power Transformation power | 1.2781 | 2.15** |
Persistence:
0.951
Half-life:
14 days
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