V-Lab
SJ Au Logistica FII Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 1st, 2026
1 Day
104.71%
increased by 3.69%
1 Week
102.87%
increased by 1.85%
1 Month
100.80%
decreased by 0.22%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 10:30 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 11, 2021 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 2 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 2.0817 | 4.62*** |
| αARCH | 0.0344 | 0.64 |
| βGARCH | 0.7225 | 1.43 |
Spline Coefficients
K=3
| γ1 | 11.9192 | 6.26*** |
| γ2 | -18.3245 | -5.90*** |
| γ3 | 8.6195 | 4.37*** |
0.757
Persistence2d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.0817 | 4.62*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0344 | 0.64 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7225 | 1.43 |
Spline Coefficients
K=3
| γ1 | 11.9192 | 6.26*** |
| γ2 | -18.3245 | -5.90*** |
| γ3 | 8.6195 | 4.37*** |
Persistence:
0.757
Half-life:
2 days
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