V-Lab
XP Corporate Macae Fundo DE Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 1st, 2026
1 Day
27.50%
decreased by 0.08%
1 Week
32.85%
increased by 5.27%
1 Month
41.09%
increased by 13.51%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 10:31 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 8, 2013 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 5 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.5743 | 5.80*** |
| αARCH | 0.2474 | 7.07*** |
| βGARCH | 0.6252 | 13.61*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | -0.0106 | -0.03 |
| γ2 | 0.2353 | 0.49 |
| γ3 | -1.1619 | -3.03*** |
| γ4 | 2.4638 | 5.43*** |
| γ5 | -2.6228 | -4.05*** |
| γ6 | 1.3697 | 1.68* |
| γ7 | -0.4763 | -0.72 |
| γ8 | 0.6361 | 1.48 |
| γ9 | -0.6861 | -2.68*** |
0.873
Persistence5d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.5743 | 5.80*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2474 | 7.07*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6252 | 13.61*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | -0.0106 | -0.03 |
| γ2 | 0.2353 | 0.49 |
| γ3 | -1.1619 | -3.03*** |
| γ4 | 2.4638 | 5.43*** |
| γ5 | -2.6228 | -4.05*** |
| γ6 | 1.3697 | 1.68* |
| γ7 | -0.4763 | -0.72 |
| γ8 | 0.6361 | 1.48 |
| γ9 | -0.6861 | -2.68*** |
Persistence:
0.873
Half-life:
5 days
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