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XP Corporate Macae Fundo DE APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 1st, 2026

1 Day

12.87%

decreased by 0.37%

1 Week

15.02%

increased by 1.78%

1 Month

21.41%

increased by 8.17%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 10:31 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

09/30/2024

to

09/30/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of XP Corporate Macae Fundo DE APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 8, 2013 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 40 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 40 days. The volatility power δ = 1.72 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

σ

APARCH Model

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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 40-day half-lifeδ = 1.72 · sub-quadratic power
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.1190
4.68***
αARCH0.2213
6.76***
βGARCH0.7787
25.71***
γleverage-0.1361
-1.12
δpower1.7179
5.22***

0.983

Persistence

40d

Half-life
σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.1190
4.68***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2213
6.76***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7787
25.71***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.1361
-1.12
δ

power

Transformation power

1.7179
5.22***

Persistence:

0.983

Half-life:

40 days