V-Lab
XP Corporate Macae Fundo DE APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 1st, 2026
1 Day
12.87%
1 Week
15.02%
1 Month
21.41%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 10:31 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 8, 2013 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 40 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 40 days. The volatility power δ = 1.72 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.1190 | 4.68*** |
| αARCH | 0.2213 | 6.76*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7787 | 25.71*** |
| γleverage | -0.1361 | -1.12 |
| δpower | 1.7179 | 5.22*** |
0.983
Persistence40d
Half-lifeAPARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.1190 | 4.68*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2213 | 6.76*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7787 | 25.71*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1361 | -1.12 |
δ power Transformation power | 1.7179 | 5.22*** |
Persistence:
0.983
Half-life:
40 days
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