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Vivmark Residential APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 2nd, 2026

1 Day

23.51%

decreased by 0.34%

1 Week

23.57%

decreased by 0.28%

1 Month

23.79%

decreased by 0.06%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 11:18 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/01/2024

to

10/01/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Vivmark Residential APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Aug 12, 1993 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 119% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 1.82 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 119% more than positive returnsδ = 1.82 · sub-quadratic power
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0407
5.67***
αARCH0.0852
8.38***
βGARCH0.8997
89.00***
γleverage0.2120
4.43***
δpower1.8232
8.93***

0.983

Persistence

39d

Half-life
σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0407
5.67***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0852
8.38***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8997
89.00***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.2120
4.43***
δ

power

Transformation power

1.8232
8.93***

Persistence:

0.983

Half-life:

39 days