V-Lab
Vivmark Residential APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 2nd, 2026
1 Day
23.51%
1 Week
23.57%
1 Month
23.79%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 11:18 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 12, 1993 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 119% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 1.82 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0407 | 5.67*** |
| αARCH | 0.0852 | 8.38*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8997 | 89.00*** |
| γleverage | 0.2120 | 4.43*** |
| δpower | 1.8232 | 8.93*** |
0.983
Persistence39d
Half-lifeAPARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0407 | 5.67*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0852 | 8.38*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8997 | 89.00*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.2120 | 4.43*** |
δ power Transformation power | 1.8232 | 8.93*** |
Persistence:
0.983
Half-life:
39 days
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