V-Lab
FII Vida Nova APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 1st, 2026
1 Day
68.28%
1 Week
74.41%
1 Month
84.98%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 10:34 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 4, 2015 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 5 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 5 days. The volatility power δ = 1.11 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.0000 | 0.47 |
| αARCH | 0.1804 | 3.84*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7126 | 6.20*** |
| γleverage | -0.0641 | -0.27 |
| δpower | 1.1071 | 1.13 |
0.858
Persistence5d
Half-lifeAPARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0000 | 0.47 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1804 | 3.84*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7126 | 6.20*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0641 | -0.27 |
δ power Transformation power | 1.1071 | 1.13 |
Persistence:
0.858
Half-life:
5 days
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