V-Lab
FII Vida Nova Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 1st, 2026
1 Day
82.34%
increased by 2.33%
1 Week
94.97%
increased by 14.96%
1 Month
103.79%
increased by 23.78%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 10:34 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 4, 2015 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 2 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 4.8718 | 3.90*** |
| αARCH | 0.2926 | 5.27*** |
| βGARCH | 0.3717 | 5.26*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | 7.1802 | 2.96*** |
| γ2 | -9.6862 | -2.57** |
| γ3 | 4.1810 | 1.98** |
| γ4 | -3.4013 | -1.13 |
| γ5 | 3.2360 | 0.92 |
| γ6 | -2.6835 | -1.06 |
| γ7 | 3.1890 | 2.07** |
| γ8 | -4.2729 | -3.14*** |
| γ9 | 3.7324 | 2.00** |
0.664
Persistence2d
Half-lifeτ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 4.8718 | 3.90*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2926 | 5.27*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.3717 | 5.26*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | 7.1802 | 2.96*** |
| γ2 | -9.6862 | -2.57** |
| γ3 | 4.1810 | 1.98** |
| γ4 | -3.4013 | -1.13 |
| γ5 | 3.2360 | 0.92 |
| γ6 | -2.6835 | -1.06 |
| γ7 | 3.1890 | 2.07** |
| γ8 | -4.2729 | -3.14*** |
| γ9 | 3.7324 | 2.00** |
Persistence:
0.664
Half-life:
2 days
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