V-Lab
Signature Residency REIT Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 1st, 2026
1 Day
17.17%
decreased by 2.03%
1 Week
18.05%
decreased by 1.15%
1 Month
18.59%
decreased by 0.61%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 09:55 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 29, 2026 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 1 trading day.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.6381 | 3.64*** |
| αARCH | 0.2057 | 2.56** |
| βGARCH | 0.3932 | 1.56 |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 10.1211 | 1.82* |
0.599
Persistence1d
Half-lifeτ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.6381 | 3.64*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2057 | 2.56** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.3932 | 1.56 |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 10.1211 | 1.82* |
Persistence:
0.599
Half-life:
1 days
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