V-Lab
Caixa Rio Bravo Fundo de Fundos de Investimento Imobiliario Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 1st, 2026
1 Day
35.45%
decreased by 4.13%
1 Week
35.45%
decreased by 4.13%
1 Month
35.46%
decreased by 4.12%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 10:27 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 8, 2014 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 5 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
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Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 4.0350 | 2.23** |
| αARCH | 0.1824 | 4.47*** |
| βGARCH | 0.6871 | 11.52*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | 2.7209 | 3.32*** |
| γ2 | -3.8715 | -3.77*** |
| γ3 | 2.8164 | 6.57*** |
| γ4 | -3.5553 | -5.76*** |
| γ5 | 2.9015 | 3.55*** |
| γ6 | -0.4049 | -0.55 |
| γ7 | -2.2424 | -3.18*** |
| γ8 | 3.3933 | 1.97** |
0.869
Persistence5d
Half-lifeτ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 4.0350 | 2.23** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1824 | 4.47*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6871 | 11.52*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | 2.7209 | 3.32*** |
| γ2 | -3.8715 | -3.77*** |
| γ3 | 2.8164 | 6.57*** |
| γ4 | -3.5553 | -5.76*** |
| γ5 | 2.9015 | 3.55*** |
| γ6 | -0.4049 | -0.55 |
| γ7 | -2.2424 | -3.18*** |
| γ8 | 3.3933 | 1.97** |
Persistence:
0.869
Half-life:
5 days
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