V-Lab
Plural Logistica Fii Classe Un Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
13.64%
decreased by 0.59%
1 Week
13.53%
decreased by 0.70%
1 Month
13.35%
decreased by 0.88%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 07:13 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 17, 2021 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 4 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
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Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.9491 | 6.81*** |
| αARCH | 0.0606 | 2.35** |
| βGARCH | 0.7935 | 7.90*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=3
| γ1 | -0.4668 | -1.82* |
| γ2 | 1.1642 | 2.69*** |
| γ3 | -1.9684 | -4.15*** |
0.854
Persistence4d
Half-lifeτ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9491 | 6.81*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0606 | 2.35** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7935 | 7.90*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=3
| γ1 | -0.4668 | -1.82* |
| γ2 | 1.1642 | 2.69*** |
| γ3 | -1.9684 | -4.15*** |
Persistence:
0.854
Half-life:
4 days
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