V-Lab
Plural Logistica Fii Classe Un MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
17.65%
1 Week
17.65%
1 Month
18.58%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 2, 2026 at 07:01 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 17, 2021 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 31 | |
| αARCH | 0.0960 | 3.05*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8697 | 13.66*** |
| γleverage | -0.0960 | -2.83*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.8526 | 1.22 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.5210 | 1.67* |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
0.918
Persistence8d
Half-lifeMF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 31 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0960 | 3.05*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8697 | 13.66*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0960 | -2.83*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.8526 | 1.22 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.5210 | 1.67* |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
0.918
Half-life:
8 days
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