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Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 2nd, 2026

1 Day

41.56%

increased by 11.38%

1 Week

39.88%

increased by 9.70%

1 Month

35.53%

increased by 5.35%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 11:11 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/01/2024

to

10/01/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jun 26, 2009 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 149% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 149% more than positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow76
αARCH0.0853
4.26***
βGARCH0.7764
33.44***
γleverage0.1275
4.15***
λ₁tau intercept0.0637
1.46
λ₂forecast adj.0.2610
3.77***
λ₃tau persistence0.7214
9.74***

0.925

Persistence

9d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

76
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0853
4.26***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7764
33.44***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1275
4.15***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0637
1.46
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.2610
3.77***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.7214
9.74***

Persistence:

0.925

Half-life:

9 days