V-Lab
Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 2nd, 2026
1 Day
41.56%
increased by 11.38%
1 Week
39.88%
increased by 9.70%
1 Month
35.53%
increased by 5.35%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 11:11 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 26, 2009 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 149% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 149% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 76 | |
| αARCH | 0.0853 | 4.26*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7764 | 33.44*** |
| γleverage | 0.1275 | 4.15*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0637 | 1.46 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.2610 | 3.77*** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.7214 | 9.74*** |
0.925
Persistence9d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 76 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0853 | 4.26*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7764 | 33.44*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1275 | 4.15*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0637 | 1.46 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.2610 | 3.77*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.7214 | 9.74*** |
Persistence:
0.925
Half-life:
9 days
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