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Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 2nd, 2026

1 Day

40.60%

increased by 9.98%

1 Week

40.64%

increased by 10.02%

1 Month

40.81%

increased by 10.19%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 11:11 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/01/2024

to

10/01/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jun 26, 2009 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.993, volatility shocks have a half-life of 96 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 104% more than positive returns

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.993, shock half-life ~96 daysLeverage: Negative returns increase volatility 104% more than positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0541
4.25***
αARCH0.0917
3.79***
βGARCH0.8534
62.94***
γleverage0.0956
2.03**

0.993

Persistence

96d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0541
4.25***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0917
3.79***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8534
62.94***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0956
2.03**

Persistence:

0.993

Half-life:

96 days