V-Lab
Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 2nd, 2026
1 Day
40.60%
increased by 9.98%
1 Week
40.64%
increased by 10.02%
1 Month
40.81%
increased by 10.19%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 11:11 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 26, 2009 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.993, volatility shocks have a half-life of 96 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 104% more than positive returns
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.993, shock half-life ~96 daysLeverage: Negative returns increase volatility 104% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0541 | 4.25*** |
| αARCH | 0.0917 | 3.79*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8534 | 62.94*** |
| γleverage | 0.0956 | 2.03** |
0.993
Persistence96d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0541 | 4.25*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0917 | 3.79*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8534 | 62.94*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0956 | 2.03** |
Persistence:
0.993
Half-life:
96 days
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