V-Lab
Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 2nd, 2026
1 Day
36.55%
increased by 7.59%
1 Week
36.41%
increased by 7.45%
1 Month
35.90%
increased by 6.94%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 11:11 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 26, 2009 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 48 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 48 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.81 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 48-day half-lifev = 4.81 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 3.8646 | 1.25 |
| αARCH | 0.1300 | 10.21*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9856 | 88.98*** |
| νDF | 4.8100 | 3.80*** |
0.986
Persistence48d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 3.8646 | 1.25 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1300 | 10.21*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9856 | 88.98*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 4.8100 | 3.80*** |
Persistence:
0.986
Half-life:
48 days
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