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Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 2nd, 2026

1 Day

36.55%

increased by 7.59%

1 Week

36.41%

increased by 7.45%

1 Month

35.90%

increased by 6.94%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 11:11 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/01/2024

to

10/01/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jun 26, 2009 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 48 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 48 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.81 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 48-day half-lifev = 4.81 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst3.8646
1.25
αARCH0.1300
10.21***
βGARCH0.9856
88.98***
νDF4.8100
3.80***

0.986

Persistence

48d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

3.8646
1.25
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1300
10.21***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9856
88.98***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

4.8100
3.80***

Persistence:

0.986

Half-life:

48 days