V-Lab
Storage King Group GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 1st, 2026
1 Day
27.12%
1 Week
27.21%
1 Month
27.55%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 06:08 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 31, 2023 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 412 trading days (~1.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.54 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 8.5199 | 2.26** |
| αARCH | 0.0378 | 6.12*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9983 | 696.18*** |
| νDF | 3.5411 | 5.86*** |
0.998
Persistence412d
Half-lifeGAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 8.5199 | 2.26** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0378 | 6.12*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9983 | 696.18*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 3.5411 | 5.86*** |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
412 days
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