V-Lab
BXP Inc GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 2nd, 2026
1 Day
24.83%
increased by 0.34%
1 Week
24.92%
increased by 0.43%
1 Month
25.24%
increased by 0.75%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 11:05 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 18, 1997 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 62 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 62 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.77 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 62-day half-lifev = 6.77 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 3.2264 | 1.47 |
| αARCH | 0.0889 | 8.92*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9889 | 125.86*** |
| νDF | 6.7698 | 1.89* |
0.989
Persistence62d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 3.2264 | 1.47 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0889 | 8.92*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9889 | 125.86*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 6.7698 | 1.89* |
Persistence:
0.989
Half-life:
62 days
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