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Vicinity Centres GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 1st, 2026

1 Day

21.14%

increased by 2.92%

1 Week

21.20%

increased by 2.98%

1 Month

21.41%

increased by 3.19%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 06:11 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

09/30/2024

to

09/30/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Vicinity Centres GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 5, 2011 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 38 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 38 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.92 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 38-day half-lifev = 6.92 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst2.0595
1.73*
αARCH0.0569
5.00***
βGARCH0.9821
78.15***
νDF6.9198
0.86

0.982

Persistence

38d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

2.0595
1.73*
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0569
5.00***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9821
78.15***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

6.9198
0.86

Persistence:

0.982

Half-life:

38 days