V-Lab
Vicinity Centres MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 1st, 2026
1 Day
21.93%
increased by 2.44%
1 Week
21.95%
increased by 2.46%
1 Month
22.05%
increased by 2.56%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 06:11 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 5, 2011 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 15 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 15 days.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 15-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 56 | |
| αARCH | 0.0388 | 2.66*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9022 | 42.42*** |
| γleverage | 0.0283 | 1.27 |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0054 | 0.85 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0096 | 2.07** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.9878 | 138.16*** |
0.955
Persistence15d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 56 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0388 | 2.66*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9022 | 42.42*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0283 | 1.27 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0054 | 0.85 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0096 | 2.07** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9878 | 138.16*** |
Persistence:
0.955
Half-life:
15 days
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