V-Lab
Suno Fundo de Funods de Investimento Imobiliario MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 1st, 2026
1 Day
14.28%
decreased by 0.49%
1 Week
15.70%
increased by 0.93%
1 Month
16.36%
increased by 1.59%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 10:29 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 7, 2021 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 1 trading day, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 1 day.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 1-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 21 | |
| αARCH | 0.2660 | 3.57*** |
| βGARCH | 0.2469 | 1.81* |
| γleverage | -0.1518 | -1.86* |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.5653 | 0.43 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.1551 | 0.41 |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.3249 | 0.21 |
0.437
Persistence1d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 21 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2660 | 3.57*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.2469 | 1.81* |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1518 | -1.86* |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.5653 | 0.43 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.1551 | 0.41 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.3249 | 0.21 |
Persistence:
0.437
Half-life:
1 days
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