V-Lab
XP Corporate Macae Fundo DE MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 1st, 2026
1 Day
16.20%
1 Week
19.81%
1 Month
30.39%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 10:31 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 8, 2013 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 1955 trading days (~7.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Inverse leverage: Positive returns increase volatility 100% more than negative returns
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 126 | |
| αARCH | 0.3677 | 9.27*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7237 | 25.01*** |
| γleverage | -0.1836 | -2.15** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 2.5495 | 4.69*** |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0176 | 1.46 |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.9787 | 72.63*** |
1.000
Persistence1955d
Half-lifeMF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 126 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.3677 | 9.27*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7237 | 25.01*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1836 | -2.15** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 2.5495 | 4.69*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0176 | 1.46 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9787 | 72.63*** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
1955 days
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