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V-Lab

XP Corporate Macae Fundo DE MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 1st, 2026

1 Day

16.20%

decreased by 0.24%

1 Week

19.81%

increased by 3.37%

1 Month

30.39%

increased by 13.95%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 10:31 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

09/30/2024

to

09/30/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of XP Corporate Macae Fundo DE MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 8, 2013 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 1955 trading days (~7.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Inverse leverage: Positive returns increase volatility 100% more than negative returns

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 1.000, shock half-life ~1955 daysInverse leverage: Positive returns increase volatility 100% more than negative returns
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow126
αARCH0.3677
9.27***
βGARCH0.7237
25.01***
γleverage-0.1836
-2.15**
λ₁tau intercept2.5495
4.69***
λ₂forecast adj.0.0176
1.46
λ₃tau persistence0.9787
72.63***

1.000

Persistence

1955d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

126
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.3677
9.27***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7237
25.01***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.1836
-2.15**
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

2.5495
4.69***
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0176
1.46
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9787
72.63***

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

1955 days