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XP Corporate Macae Fundo DE GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 1st, 2026

1 Day

11.72%

decreased by 0.93%

1 Week

13.44%

increased by 0.79%

1 Month

18.52%

increased by 5.87%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 10:31 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

09/30/2024

to

09/30/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of XP Corporate Macae Fundo DE GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 8, 2013 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 68 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 68 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.61 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 68-day half-lifev = 2.61 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst9.0766
1.19
αARCH0.1510
25.81***
βGARCH0.9898
122.68***
νDF2.6108
30.15***

0.990

Persistence

68d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

9.0766
1.19
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1510
25.81***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9898
122.68***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

2.6108
30.15***

Persistence:

0.990

Half-life:

68 days