V-Lab
XP Corporate Macae Fundo DE GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 1st, 2026
1 Day
11.72%
decreased by 0.93%
1 Week
13.44%
increased by 0.79%
1 Month
18.52%
increased by 5.87%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 10:31 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 8, 2013 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 68 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 68 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.61 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 68-day half-lifev = 2.61 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 9.0766 | 1.19 |
| αARCH | 0.1510 | 25.81*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9898 | 122.68*** |
| νDF | 2.6108 | 30.15*** |
0.990
Persistence68d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 9.0766 | 1.19 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1510 | 25.81*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9898 | 122.68*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 2.6108 | 30.15*** |
Persistence:
0.990
Half-life:
68 days
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