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Simon Property Group Inc GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 2nd, 2026

1 Day

14.51%

decreased by 0.73%

1 Week

15.01%

decreased by 0.23%

1 Month

16.64%

increased by 1.40%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 11:16 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/01/2024

to

10/01/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Simon Property Group Inc GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 14, 1993 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 39 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 39 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.45 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 39-day half-lifev = 6.45 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst2.4977
2.05**
αARCH0.0842
7.95***
βGARCH0.9823
106.49***
νDF6.4515
1.87*

0.982

Persistence

39d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

2.4977
2.05**
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0842
7.95***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9823
106.49***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

6.4515
1.87*

Persistence:

0.982

Half-life:

39 days